ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Spatio-temporal risk assessment models for Lobesia botrana in uncolonized winegrowing areas
1
Department of Plant Production, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
2
Bureau of Phytosanitary and Biological Compounds, National Animal Health and Agri-food Quality Service (SENASA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
3
Regional Center of Geomatics (CEREGEO), Autonomous University of Entre Ríos, Oro Verde, Entre Ríos, Argentina
4
CICyTTP – CONICET, España 149 (3105) Diamante, Entre Ríos, Argentina
5
Faculty of Agronomy, Entre Rios National University, Oro Verde (3100) Entre Ríos, Argentina
A - Research concept and design; B - Collection and/or assembly of data; C - Data analysis and interpretation; D - Writing the article; E - Critical revision of the article; F - Final approval of article
Submission date: 2018-10-26
Acceptance date: 2019-06-27
Online publication date: 2019-07-30
Corresponding author
Pablo Gilberto Aceñolaza
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas – CONICET/CICyTTP, Matteri y España s/n, Diamante, Entre Ríos (3105), Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas – CONICET/CICyTTP, Matteri y España s/n, Diamante, Entre Ríos (3105), Argentina
Journal of Plant Protection Research 2019;59(2):265-272
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism
of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina,
Mendoza. To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated
these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2
was used to generate statistics on L. botrana captures and the mean temperature accumulation
for the pixel. Four sets of logistic regression were constructed using the percentage
of accumulated trap catches/grid/week and the degree-day accumulation above
7°C, from 1st July. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological
model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. According to our
results, it can be expected that 50% of male adult emergence for the first flight occurs at
248.79 ± 4 degree-days (DD), in the second flight at 860.18 ± 4.1 DD, while in the third
and the fourth flights, 1671.34 ± 5.8 DD and 2335.64 ± 4.3 DD, respectively. Subsequent
climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region
have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological
model. The upper valley of Río Negro and Neuquén are environmentally similar. Valleys of
the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater
variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered. The combination of two models
for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater
certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors have declared that no conflict of interests exist.
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